COVID-19 virus behavior simulation model: Case of study Bogotá, Colombia

Authors

  • Diomedes Arnoldo Sandoval Muelas Programa Maestría en Desarrollo Sustentable y Gestión Ambiental, Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, Bogotá-Colombia
  • David Ricardo Pedroza Martínez Centro de Estudios en Pavimentos y Materiales Sostenibles, Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, Bogotá-Colombia
  • Diego Fernando Casas Pérez Programa Maestría en Desarrollo Sustentable y Gestión Ambiental, Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, Bogotá-Colombia
  • Ivanov Alexander Pineda Rincón Programa Maestría en maestría en Manejo, Uso y Conservación del Bosque, Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, Bogotá-Colombia
  • Julio Eduardo Beltrán Vargas Grupo de Investigación INDESOS, Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, Bogotá-Colombia

Keywords:

Theoretical Model, Computer Simulation, Epidemic, Outbreak for the New Coronavirus 2019, Statistics and numerical data for epidemics

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to present a prediction on the epidemiological behavior of the COVID-19 virus for the city of Bogotá, Colombia and determine the possible incidence of the different restriction measures. Material and Methods: a dynamic model based on state information was built for all the analysis variables in the framework of a SEIR model. Results and Conclusions: it was determined that the incidence of effective isolation measures significantly affects the behavior of the disease. Results are presented for two different scenarios, with their respective sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method. It is concluded that it is necessary to increase testing and reduce the time needed to get the results. It is also crucial to generate and deploy social policies that make the fulfillment of an effective quarantine possible. Finally, the restrictions of the model for decision-making in terms of public policy are shown.

Published

2021-04-19

How to Cite

Sandoval Muelas, D. A. ., Pedroza Martínez, D. R., Casas Pérez, . D. F. ., Pineda Rincón, . I. A. ., & Beltrán Vargas, J. E. . (2021). COVID-19 virus behavior simulation model: Case of study Bogotá, Colombia. Tecciencia, 16(30), 35–50. Retrieved from https://tecciencia.ecci.edu.co/index.php/TECCIENCIA/article/view/115